MLB Betting Notebook: Risk Management, Patience and the Importance of Matching Early – The Athletic | Region & Cash

The same clocks that couldn’t get to opening day fast enough are now seemingly stuck in fast-forward for the past seven days. Welcome back to my favorite content: the MLB Betting Notebook here at the athlete.

The 2022 MLB season may only be a few days old, but the schedule didn’t get the memo. Game action is non-stop, and with it a virtual tsunami of player news, new usage patterns, injuries and late-inning heroics. When we last met, I introduced some of the theories behind my focus on first five innings (F5) betting. Today I want to turn that attention to more fundamental fundamentals of a successful betting career; Patience and definition of risk management. We’ll briefly discuss why speed is key when it comes to MLB betting, and then begin laying the foundations for a professional betting plan. Normally reserved for private consultations, I can help guide you through some very simple steps that you can actually use yourself if you are trying to make some extra income and start your own small business.

Above all, betting on MLB every day for six months requires sustainability – you cannot make money in a market in which you are not a participant. I’m admittedly sentimental about the journey that brought me here, but at the same time I genuinely enjoy sharing the lessons that have had a profound impact on me. I remember this story from when I first learned to trade futures, which happens to be an extremely fast-paced, high-leverage game. As soon as he introduced himself, the gentleman I worked under immediately asked me if I knew the story of two lions. He started telling me about a young lion and an old lion sitting on a hill overlooking a valley full of unsuspecting sheep. The young lion looks at the old lion and says, “If we run down the hill as fast as we can, we bet we can catch one of those sheep.” The old lion slowly turns around, nods, and says, “Yeah, probably you’re right; I think you will definitely catch one. But if we sneak down quietly to the other side, we can catch them all.” Maybe you had to be there, maybe it was the way he told the story, but that stuck in my mind. You can hurry and get a little, or you can take the time it takes to get something right and get everything.

Short stories about imaginary talking animals aside, the preaching of patience feels almost too obvious to be professional advice, but it’s the first task to master if you ever want to succeed in risky endeavors. It is also the easiest action to describe and the most difficult to perform. In fact, it’s almost difficult not to fall into our own inner coaching language where we take it day by day and stay in our process. “Patience is a virtue” or “whoever loses patience loses the battle” all sounds well and good until the games are in full swing and live money is at stake. How do you avoid the clichés? For me, the answer was to define my own parameters. I found myself allowing the rush of a new season and the excitement of betting to get me into a fast hole and start me behind the eight. Betting felt more like guesswork in April than July and the results reflected that. So I stopped all bets for the first two weeks of my next few seasons and it has yielded results. I’ve since matured to a point where I’ll actually bet on perceived values ​​early in the season, but I’ve slowed my Daily Risk from its overall midseason standard.

I can’t advise you not to bet and just leave it at that, right? Of course not – that just wouldn’t be me. Just because you don’t gamble doesn’t mean you don’t work. While waiting to go live, you should not only collect data, but also bet and track on paper. Make the most of this time by starting to formulate your system without breaking the bank; You may find that seven bets is too many, or that two is not enough. I can’t decide that part for you – every style is unique. However, once you have that reach, you are ready for the crucial step that follows.

Many bettors have a fixed amount they bet on each game, which actually sounds like a demonstration of consistency. However, if these bets are not always made in the same amounts and always at the same price, there is no telling how different your risk can be from day to day. From a risk management point of view, I do not think this method is acceptable due to its weaknesses. I can’t tell you what to do with your money, but I know I’ve found that success is the opposite of the norm. Beginners need to better define and quantify risks. The “unity” was supposed to be the answer to this problem; it has become anything but. Their misuse and improper design are the cause of the decline of many bettors. It’s a bit too much now to explain in detail the nuances of my point of view, but what I can leave you with is the correct course of action. When I (and now hopefully we) refer to a Unit here or otherwise, it entails a strict definition that applies to all players; worth one percent of the account or stack. Not only does this have a crystal clear mathematical definition, but its progression can be tracked universally. I might be betting 10x more than someone else, but we’ll both be up (and hopefully not down) by the same amount.

With the unit clearly defined, we are now just a small step away from the best way to determine our risk per stake. Setting our daily risk allocation is another example of individual styles leading to different optimal outcomes. There is no “right” answer. However, I turned to day market risk experts and ended up with a maximum risk of 1.5% to 2.5% of my total stack on any given day (a number I’ll adjust slightly depending on the ebb and flow of the season) . You can probably see the image clearer now. The daily allocation you set serves as a guiding star for the amount wagered.

For example, let’s say our daily maximum risk is two percent and we like five different bets. Instead of betting five units (1.5 times our maximum limit), we divide our two-unit allowance by the five bets and wager 0.40 units on each. This allows us the path to daily gaming with lots of action without exposing us to huge disadvantages and devastation. Remember the day I said betting on MLB every day for six months is sustainability above all else? Well, that was just my best effort to break down that door for you.

I hope you enjoyed the first of many betting lessons in my MLB notebook. If you have any questions you disagree with or would like me to expand on, please leave a comment below. If you want access to the tools I provide or my MLBMA algo picks you can follow my twitter handle @MLBMovingAvg. Don’t forget to check out the Corked Stats audio podcast and Corked Stats video series on YouTube on the Mayo Media Network.

(Top Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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